External Validation and Recalibration of the CURB-65 and PSI for Predicting 30-Day Mortality and Critical Care Intervention in Multiethnic Patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: To validate and recalibrate the CURB-65 and pneumonia severity index (PSI) in predicting 30-day mortality and critical care intervention (CCI) in a multiethnic population with COVID-19, along with evaluating both models in predicting CCI. METHODS: Retrospective data was collected for 1181 patients admitted to the largest hospital in Qatar with COVID-19 pneumonia. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and other metrics were bootstrapped to examine the performance of the models. Variables constituting the CURB-65 and PSI scores underwent further analysis using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) along with logistic regression to develop a model predicting CCI. Complex machine learning models were built for comparative analysis. RESULTS: The PSI performed better than CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83, 0.78 respectively), while CURB-65 outperformed PSI in predicting CCI (AUC 0.78, 0.70 respectively). The modified PSI/CURB-65 model (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, hematocrit, age, sodium, and glucose) predicting CCI had excellent accuracy (AUC 0.823) and good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Our study recalibrated, externally validated the PSI and CURB-65 for predicting 30-day mortality and CCI, and developed a model for predicting CCI. Our tool can potentially guide clinicians in Qatar to stratify patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Mental health research in the Arab region in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: a scoping review.

Background: The ongoing pandemic has led to a global surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related mental health research. However, most related publications come from Western countries or China, and their findings cannot always be extrapolated to Arab countries. Aims: This study provides a quantitative and qualitative analysis of mental health research pertaining to Arab countries' response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A scoping review of the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 database for publications on mental health was conducted by authors affiliated with Arab institutions, including articles from inception to 24 October 2020. The included publications were evaluated for their national distribution, international collaboration, publication type, and main research themes. Methodological quality analysis of the included research studies was performed using the original and modified versions of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Results: In total, 102 articles were included in this study, averaging 4.6 articles per Arab country. Most of the articles emerged from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt. A majority of publications demonstrated international collaboration. Most of the publications were original research studies and cross-sectional in design. The predominant research theme was examining the pandemic's mental health effects on the general population and healthcare workers. Only 28.0% of the studies were of high methodological quality, whereas 41.5% were moderate and 30.5% were low in quality. Conclusions: Mental health research in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Arab region has quantitative and qualitative shortfalls. Arab institutions need to respond to the pandemic promptly in order to address the delineated research gap and to generate higher-quality research output.

Complement C5a and Clinical Markers as Predictors of COVID-19 Disease Severity and Mortality in a Multi-Ethnic Population.

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) was declared as a pandemic by WHO in March 2020. SARS-CoV-2 causes a wide range of illness from asymptomatic to life-threatening. There is an essential need to identify biomarkers to predict disease severity and mortality during the earlier stages of the disease, aiding treatment and allocation of resources to improve survival. The aim of this study was to identify at the time of SARS-COV-2 infection patients at high risk of developing severe disease associated with low survival using blood parameters, including inflammation and coagulation mediators, vital signs, and pre-existing comorbidities. This cohort included 89 multi-ethnic COVID-19 patients recruited between July 14th and October 20th 2020 in Doha, Qatar. According to clinical severity, patients were grouped into severe (n=33), mild (n=33) and asymptomatic (n=23). Common routine tests such as complete blood count (CBC), glucose, electrolytes, liver and kidney function parameters and markers of inflammation, thrombosis and endothelial dysfunction including complement component split product C5a, Interleukin-6, ferritin and C-reactive protein were measured at the time COVID-19 infection was confirmed. Correlation tests suggest that C5a is a predictive marker of disease severity and mortality, in addition to 40 biological and physiological parameters that were found statistically significant between survivors and non-survivors. Survival analysis showed that high C5a levels, hypoalbuminemia, lymphopenia, elevated procalcitonin, neutrophilic leukocytosis, acute anemia along with increased acute kidney and hepatocellular injury markers were associated with a higher risk of death in COVID-19 patients. Altogether, we created a prognostic classification model, the CAL model (C5a, Albumin, and Lymphocyte count) to predict severity with significant accuracy. Stratification of patients using the CAL model could help in the identification of patients likely to develop severe symptoms in advance so that treatments can be targeted accordingly.

SnoRNAs and miRNAs Networks Underlying COVID-19 Disease Severity.

There is a lack of predictive markers for early and rapid identification of disease progression in COVID-19 patients. Our study aims at identifying microRNAs (miRNAs)/small nucleolar RNAs (snoRNAs) as potential biomarkers of COVID-19 severity. Using differential expression analysis of microarray data (n = 29), we identified hsa-miR-1246, ACA40, hsa-miR-4532, hsa-miR-145-5p, and ACA18 as the top five differentially expressed transcripts in severe versus asymptomatic, and ACA40, hsa-miR-3609, ENSG00000212378 (SNORD78), hsa-miR-1231, hsa-miR-885-3p as the most significant five in severe versus mild cases. Moreover, we found that white blood cell (WBC) count, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), neutrophil (%), lymphocyte (%), red blood cell (RBC) count, hemoglobin, hematocrit, D-Dimer, and albumin are significantly correlated with the identified differentially expressed miRNAs and snoRNAs. We report a unique miRNA and snoRNA profile that is associated with a higher risk of severity in a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Altogether, we present a differential expression analysis of COVID-19-associated microRNA (miRNA)/small nucleolar RNA (snoRNA) signature, highlighting their importance in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

SARS-CoV-2 and immune-microbiome interactions: Lessons from respiratory viral infections.

By the beginning of 2020, infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had rapidly evolved into an emergent worldwide pandemic, an outbreak whose unprecedented consequences highlighted many existing flaws within public healthcare systems across the world. While coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is bestowed with a broad spectrum of clinical manifestations, involving the vital organs, the respiratory system transpires as the main route of entry for SARS-CoV-2, with the lungs being its primary target. Of those infected, up to 20% require hospitalization on account of severity, while the majority of patients are either asymptomatic or exhibit mild symptoms. Exacerbation in the disease severity and complications of COVID-19 infection have been associated with multiple comorbidities, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disorders, cancer, and chronic lung disease. Interestingly, a recent body of evidence indicated the pulmonary and gut microbiomes as potential modulators for altering the course of COVID-19, potentially via the microbiome-immune system axis. While the relative concordance between microbes and immunity has yet to be fully elucidated with regards to COVID-19, we present an overview of our current understanding of COVID-19-microbiome-immune cross talk and discuss the potential contributions of microbiome-related immunity to SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and COVID-19 disease progression.